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Afghanistan’s Power Sector Update: Outlook remains uncertain [free access]

May 10, 2022

War-torn Afghanistan is taking small steps to restore its power sector, which is in a shambles like its economy. Due to international isolation following the political crisis arising from the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban in August 2021, foreign aid and funding stopped completely, leading to a contraction in economic output. The World Bank’s latest update on Afghanistan, Towards Economic Stabilization and Recovery (April 2022), notes that cessation of grant inflows, loss of access to overseas central bank assets, and the breakdown of international banking relationships caused Afghanistan’s economic output to decline by one-third during the last months of 2021. The country had largely been dependent on international aid for over two decades – grant support averaged 60 per cent of the country’s GDP between 2001 and 2020, helping the Afghan economy grow by over 7 per cent year-on-year average during this period.

 

With the cessation of funding support, several projects including those in the power sector came to a halt. Turkmenistan's 500 kV electricity transmission link to Afghanistan is one such stalled project. The link is being developed to transfer electricity from the Turkmenistan border to Sheberghan’s Aqina port, then to the Alvazun plain of Kunduz and finally to the Arghandi district of Kabul. The project, funded by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), is 90 per cent complete, and the remaining 10 per cent can be completed in about six months if funding resumes. Likewise, works on several other major transmission projects including the Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000); the Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan (TUTAP) project; and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) interconnector were stalled in the second half of 2021.

 

Further, power shortages have been posing a grave challenge to the country, which meets nearly 80 per cent of its power requirement from neighbouring countries such as Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran. This is mainly because of mounting dues to foreign suppliers as well as outages due to damage of cross-country power lines by insurgents. Afghanistan is required to make a monthly payment of between USD20 million to USD25 million to power suppliers in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Iran, and as of October 2021, unpaid bills stood at USD62 million. The Afghan government had requested USD90 million from the United Mission to clear the dues.

 

In recent months, the government was able to enter into discussions with its neighbouring counterparts and resumed and/or extend power supply contracts. For instance, in December 2021, Afghanistan’s electric utility Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS) signed a contract with the National Electric Grid (NEG) of Uzbekistan for electricity imports through 2022. In January 2022, DABS signed an agreement with Tajikistan's Tajik Electricity Company for the extension of the import of electricity.

 

Steps are also being taken to restore electrical infrastructure damaged due to extreme weather (such as snowstorms) and insurgency-related events. In October 2021, an explosion hit a high-voltage line supplying imported power to Kabul and some other provinces, plunging the capital into darkness. Similarly, in June 2021, around 25 electricity pylons were destroyed or damaged by explosions. In March 2022, the power supply from Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan returned to normal after damaged transmission lines were fixed and technical issues were resolved following a snowstorm. This helped mitigate the electricity shortages in Kabul and downstream provinces to some extent. Recently, a new 160 kV power transformer was inaugurated in Ghazni province.

 

Institutional structure

The wholly government-owned vertically integrated utility DABS operates and manages the entire electricity infrastructure in Afghanistan, including generation, imports, and transmission and distribution activities. The utility was formed in 2009 following the restructuring of the Afghanistan Electricity Organisation (DABM), a department under the Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW). MEW is responsible for policy and strategy development for the electricity sector. MEW is engaged in planning, strategising and accessing power sector developments. The Renewable Energy Directorate (RED), created in 2009, is the technical body concerned with the development of renewable energy (RE) projects at MEW.

 

Sector overview

The total power generation capacity in Afghanistan stood at 641 MW in 2020 as per the latest available statistics from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). About 52 per cent of the capacity (333 MW) was accounted for by hydro, 43 per cent (277 MW) by thermal and the remaining 5 per cent (31 MW) by solar. Generation capacity addition has been paltry over the years with the installed capacity recording a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8 per cent between 2006 and 2020. Some of the key power plants in the country include the 100 MW Naghlu hydroelectric project (HEP), the 66 MW Mahipar HEP, the 105 MW Tarakhil thermal power plant (TPP), the 63.5 Kandahar TPP, and the 50 MW Khairkhana TPP. Recently, in April 2022, DABS installed the third turbine of the Salma dam project, taking the total plant capacity to 30 MW.

 

Table 1: Afghanistan’s installed capacity in 2020

Type

Capacity (MW)

%

Non-renewable

277

43

Renewable

364

57

Hydro/marine

333

52

Solar

31

5

Total

641

100

Source: IRENA

 

Electricity generation declined by nearly 20 per cent to 1,031 GWh in 2020 from 1,285 GWh in 2019. Domestic generation accounts for only 20 per cent of electricity supply in the country while the rest is met by imports. During 2020, electricity imports stood at 5,152 GWh, an increase of about 5 per cent over 4,912 GWh in 2019.

 

Figure 1: Electricity generation and import trends in Afghanistan (GWh) 

Source: National Statistics and Information Authority, Global Transmission Research

 

Regarding transmission, the segment is highly fragmented, comprising isolated grid systems that are fed power from various plants and import sources. The power system is divided into four networks—the North East Power System (NEPS), which is connected with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan; the South East Power System (SEPS); the Herat Zone System, which is connected with Iran and Turkmenistan; and the Turkmenistan System.

 

Need to expand generation

To improve energy security, Afghanistan needs to invest in generation projects, but new project announcements are few and far between. Recently, the Khepelwak Group Company expressed an interest in setting up a coal-fired power generation plant in the country.

Earlier in September 2020, a USD160 million deal was signed between Afghanistan, the US, Turkey and India to add 110 MW of solar and wind capacities in the country. The projects were proposed to be developed in Kabul, Balkh and Herat by a local company with partners from other countries. However, the status of the deal following the change of political regime is uncertain. The proposed projects include the 25 MW Western Herat-I solar plant, the 25 MW Western Herat-II wind plant, the 40 MW Northern Balkh solar plant and the 25 MW Naghlu Dam floating solar plant.

Another important project is the 58.6 MW Mazar-e-Sharif gas-to-power project, which will be the first independent power project in Afghanistan. The USD89 million project is proposed to come up at an industrial site about 20 km southwest of the city of Mazar-e-Sharif in the north-western part of Afghanistan. In June 2020, the ADB and the Afghan Power Plant Company Limited (APPC) signed a USD10 million loan as part of a financing package.  APPC is a special purpose vehicle owned by Ghazanfar Group, one of Afghanistan’s largest conglomerates, and Egypt-based construction company Hassan Allam Holdings. However, the project’s future is uncertain unless multilateral funding resumes.

 

Update on key transmission projects

CASA-1000 Project

The USD 1.2 billion CASA-1000 is a 1,270-km-long, 500 kV power transmission line project funded by the World Bank, which aims to facilitate the trade of 1,300 MW of electricity among four countries—Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It entails transmitting surplus energy from hydroelectric power projects in the former two countries to the power-deficit Pakistan (1,000 MW) and Afghanistan (300 MW). Afghanistan’s DABS, Joint Stock Company National Electric Grid of Kyrgyzstan (NEGK), National Transmission and Despatch Company (NTDC) of Pakistan, and Open Joint Stock Holding Company Barki Tajik of Tajikistan, are the project developers.

 

Overall, CASA-1000 has made satisfactory progress on various aspects. As of October 2021, about 15 per cent of work on the project on the Afghan side had been completed. In Afghanistan, the main project activity is constructing 570 km of transmission lines. However, the World Bank, which is a main stakeholder, halted work on the line section, expressing its inability to maintain financial terms with the new Kabul administration. It is feared that the project might face delays, with works currently halted in the country. Tajikistan's transmission line construction is ahead of schedule, while Pakistan's work on the CASA-1000 transmission line is expected to be completed by end-2022.

 

In February 2022, it was reported that the World Bank is evaluating different options to complete the CASA-1000 project. Recently, a joint working group consisting of high-level government representatives from each of the four countries convened a meeting to seek clarity on the project’s future.

 

TAP Interconnector

Another key project is the TAP Interconnector, which is funded by ADB. The project entails the construction of around 500 km of 500 kV transmission lines between Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Once completed, the project will be able to transfer up to 4,000 MW of power from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The framework agreement for the project was signed in 2018. TAP is being phased into two concurrent stages.

 

In May 2021, the Turkish company TAPP-500 Power Transmission Line FZE—a subsidiary of Çalik Holding A.Ş—announced the completion of the 260-km-long, 220 kV line from Mary State Power Plant in Turkmenistan’s Mary city to Afghanistan’s city of Herat, thereby completing the first phase of the project. In the second phase, the power line will be extended to Pakistan. In February 2022, Pakistan agreed to hold a meeting of the technical working group on the TAP transmission line to discuss the pre-feasibility parameters of the project.

 

TUTAP

The ADB-funded TUTAP interconnector project aims to provide an export route from Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbours—Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan—and from Afghanistan itself, to Pakistan. Pul-e-Khumri in Afghanistan will serve as a hub for power exports from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. The project comprises five phases. Phase 1 covers the 220 kV Afghanistan–Uzbekistan link (completed in 2009); Phase 2 comprises the 220 kV Afghanistan–Tajikistan link (commissioned in 2011); Phase 3 is the 500 kV Afghanistan–Uzbekistan link (yet to be completed); Phase 4 entails the extension of the existing Afghanistan–Turkmenistan link through a 500 kV transmission interconnection until Pul-e-Khumri in Afghanistan, where the CASA-1000 line from Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic meets the TUTAP line (yet to be completed); and Phase 5 comprises a 500 MW, HVDC back-to-back convertor station at Pul-e-Khumri in Afghanistan to synchronise the Turkmen and Afghan systems (yet to be completed).

 

In December 2021, Uzbekistan’s NEG and Afghanistan’s DABS launched talks on resuming construction of the 500 kV Surkhan–Pul-e-Khumri high-voltage transmission line between the two countries. The construction and installation of the 201-km section of the project is planned in Afghanistan. In October 2020, ADB provided USD110 million to the Afghan government for the construction of the Surkhan–Pul-e-Khumri transmission line. However, construction on the Afghan section has not commenced due to the unstable situation in the country.

 

Other ongoing projects 

In recent months, DABS has been working to complete certain crucial domestic projects. For instance, it is reconstructing the 110 kV Kandahar–Kajaki line in Helmand. So far, the tower equipment has been installed and a 21-km line extension has been completed in the Sangin district while works are yet to be completed in the downstream areas of the 110 kV line. Another key ongoing project is the construction of the 220 kV Ghazni–Kandahar transmission line and associated substations in Ghazni province. The timely implementation of the 220 kV project is crucial as it connects Kandahar to the national power grid.

 

Recently, a trilateral energy sector development protocol was signed between Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and the Turkish company Çalik Holdings. The protocol includes a contract between DABS and Turkmen Energo for the expansion of the Noor-ul-Jahad substation from 110 kV to 220 kV and accelerating the Sheberghan-Dasht-e-Alvan 500 kV line project, which will enable electricity transfer from Turkmenistan to Kabul and other provinces. In February 2022, DABS signed an agreement with Calik Enerji for the expansion of the Nur-al-Jihad substation from 110 kV to 220 kV and the construction of a 220 kV double-circuit line.

 

Conclusion

The outlook for Afghanistan’s power sector is at best uncertain given the international isolation that the country is facing, resulting in a paucity of funds to complete critical projects. Though political conflicts and insurgency continue, Afghanistan’s electric utility DABS seems to be making efforts to secure electricity supply contracts with its neighbours as well as restore electrical infrastructure. However, there is a pressing need for the international community to step in and find ways to support sustainable economic growth in Afghanistan.