It is challenging to understand what the longer-term energy future holds when looking past the high energy prices of today. The focus on energy security has risen multi-fold making its way to the governments’ top priorities considering rising energy prices subsequent to Russia-Ukraine conflict. This has in turn resulted in renewed attention on the renewable power generation such as wind, solar and hydro.
In this backdrop, DNV, an independent expert in risk management and assurance, has recently released the 6th edition of a report titled ‘Energy Transition Outlook 2022’. It presents the global and regional forecast to 2050 based on results from an independent model of the world’s energy system across 10 regions. Notably, it considers the demand shock as the result of pandemic and the supply shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and concludes that these developments exert little long-term influence over a transition that is expected to be rapid and extensive.
The report presents the long-term and short-term forecasts along with the ‘Pathways to NetZero’ introduced for the first time. It highlights the need to control the emissions along with the need to increase grid investments by more than 50 per cent while renewables will need to triple in next 10 years. This is based on the assumption that there will be no new oil and gas needed after 2024 in high income countries and after 2028 in middle- and low-income countries. DNV’s Pathway to Net Zero calls for considerably more extensive policy changes than those currently seen.
The report can be accessed here