The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a not-for-profit international regulatory authority, annually evaluates and reports on the reliability, adequacy, and risks that could affect the upcoming summer and winter seasons, as well as the next 10 years. When new risks are identified, special assessments are conducted to provide insights and guide necessary actions.

Released in December 2024, NERC’s 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) provides a comprehensive, independent assessment of bulk power system resource adequacy, utilising probabilistic analysis and energy risk metrics to identify potential supply shortfalls, ultimately aiming to guide North America toward a more resilient grid. It highlighted significant challenges in ensuring reliable electricity across North America over the next decade. Key issues include escalating energy demand, generator retirements, and obstacles in resource and transmission development. Over half of the continent faces elevated or high risks of energy shortfalls in the next 5-10 years. Electricity demand is growing rapidly due to factors like new data centres, electrification of various sectors, and large industrial projects such as hydrogen fuel plants. As a result, the summer peak demand is projected to rise by more than 122 GW (15.7 per cent) in the next 10 years, while winter peak demand is expected to increase by 14 per cent.

Simultaneously, 115 GW of generator retirements are expected over the next decade, primarily being replaced by variable generation sources. While this mix of resources may suffice during most periods, ensuring reliability year-round will require a sufficient number of dispatchable generators with reliable fuel supplies, such as natural gas.

LTRA stresses the importance of enhancing grid infrastructure to meet future demand. While investments in transmission development are promising, the report emphasises that overcoming siting, permitting, and construction challenges remains critical. NERC’s Interregional Transfer Capability Study (ITCS), included in the assessment, reveals that adding 35 GW of transfer capability across the US could bolster energy adequacy, especially in extreme conditions.

Regionally, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) is highlighted as being particularly vulnerable, with reserve margins falling below required levels due to inadequate resource additions, particularly during both winter and summer.

Recommendations for energy policymakers, regulators, and the industry include:

  • Carefully managing generator retirements in light of potential reliability risks.
  • Incorporating wide-area energy analysis and interregional transfer capability into long-term planning.
  • Addressing siting and permitting barriers to transmission and resource development.
  • Encouraging collaboration between regulators, the electric industry, and the natural gas industry to support interconnected energy systems.
  • Ensuring regional transmission organizations maintain essential reliability services.

The full report can be accessed here.